Cox Automotive forecasts U.S. new-vehicle sales in Q1 will increase 5.6% year over year and reach 3.8 million units. The year-over-year increase in Q1 sales suggests that the new-vehicle market in the U.S. continues to recover slowly from the 10-year low – 13.8 million total sales – recorded in 2022.

Sales volume in March, when announced early next month, is expected to show gains over March 2023 and 2022 as the market continues to expand. The forecast of 1.45 million sales in March would be an increase of 4.5% year over year and close to the 10-year average for the month, historically one of the strongest sales months in a given year.

Healthy sales are being supported by significantly improved new-vehicle inventory levels. At the beginning of March, the total supply of available new vehicles was up more than 50% compared to last March, according to the latest vAuto Live Market View data.

The March seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or selling pace, is expected to finish near 15.5 million, up 0.6 million over last year's pace but down slightly from February's surprisingly strong 15.8 million level. This March has 27 sales days, the same as last year but two more than last month. Through Q1, the SAAR is forecast at 15.4 million, up from 15.0 million, or a 2.7% increase, compared to Q1 2023.

Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough said: "Since April 2023, the SAAR has experienced some large swings with an average at the mid-15 million level. That sales pace is expected to continue this month as well. However, March weather was unseasonably warm this year, which could give sales an extra boost."

March 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

¹ Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
² Total includes segments not shown  

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.